Bundesliga: The Highest-Scoring League and Its Pricing Anomalies
3,366 matches. 3.07 goals/match. Draws systematically underpriced. Strongest Dixon-Coles correction of any league: ρ = −0.096.
Matches
3,366
Goals/match
3.07
Home win
44.2%
Draw
24.7%
Over 2.5
59.4%
ρ
−0.096
Season-by-season overview
| Season | n | Goals | Home | Draw | Away | O2.5 | BTTS | 0:0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015/16 | 306 | 2.83 | 44.1% | 23.2% | 32.7% | 55.9% | 54.6% | 7.8% |
| 2016/17 | 306 | 2.87 | 49.0% | 24.2% | 26.8% | 54.9% | 54.9% | 6.2% |
| 2017/18 | 306 | 2.79 | 45.4% | 27.1% | 27.5% | 52.0% | 54.9% | 6.9% |
| 2018/19 | 306 | 3.18 | 45.1% | 23.9% | 31.0% | 62.4% | 59.5% | 5.6% |
| 2019/20 | 306 | 3.21 | 40.2% | 22.2% | 37.6% | 65.0% | 58.2% | 3.9% |
| 2020/21 | 306 | 3.03 | 42.2% | 26.5% | 31.4% | 58.8% | 60.1% | 5.9% |
| 2021/22 | 306 | 3.12 | 46.7% | 23.9% | 29.4% | 58.5% | 60.8% | 5.2% |
| 2022/23 | 306 | 3.17 | 47.4% | 24.5% | 28.1% | 60.5% | 59.2% | 4.9% |
| 2023/24 | 306 | 3.22 | 43.8% | 26.5% | 29.7% | 62.4% | 61.8% | 4.2% |
| 2024/25 | 306 | 3.13 | 38.6% | 25.2% | 36.3% | 59.8% | 56.9% | 7.2% |
| 2025/26 | 306 | 3.24 | 43.8% | 24.5% | 31.7% | 63.7% | 61.8% | 3.9% |
2025/26 — highest goals of the dataset (3.24), O2.5 at 63.7%, just 3.9% goalless. 2024/25 — home advantage low (38.6%), below COVID season; home recovered to 43.8% in 2025/26.
The Bayern effect
Bayern matches
374
Win rate
73.5%
Goals/match
3.78
Home W%
78.6%
Bayern play 11.1% of all matches. Fixtures average 3.78 goals (vs 3.07 league). Home odds routinely 1.10–1.25. Dortmund: 3.51 goals/match. The top of the Bundesliga is a goal machine.
Market calibration: draws are underpriced
| Cluster | n | Imp H | Act H | Δ H | Imp D | Act D | Δ D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Fav | 485 | 75.0% | 75.9% | +0.8 | 15.3% | 17.9% | +2.6pp |
| Clear Fav | 696 | 57.0% | 57.6% | +0.6 | 23.6% | 24.3% | +0.7pp |
| Slight Fav | 749 | 44.8% | 43.4% | −1.4 | 26.9% | 28.3% | +1.4pp |
| Even | 536 | 36.6% | 33.8% | −2.8 | 27.8% | 28.4% | +0.6 |
| Underdog | 900 | 22.7% | 23.7% | +1.0 | 23.4% | 23.4% | +0.0 |
Draws underpriced in every favourite cluster: Heavy Fav +2.6pp, Slight Fav +1.4pp, Clear Fav +0.7pp — and the best draw ROI of the five leagues (−0.9% overall). The attacking Bundesliga style creates late equalisers the market underestimates.
Most common scores
| # | Score | Count | Freq |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1:1 | 399 | 11.9% |
| 2 | 2:1 | 293 | 8.7% |
| 3 | 1:0 | 222 | 6.6% |
| 4 | 2:0 | 221 | 6.6% |
| 5 | 1:2 | 207 | 6.1% |
| 6 | 0:0 | 189 | 5.6% |
| 7 | 0:1 | 187 | 5.6% |
| 8 | 2:2 | 183 | 5.4% |
| 9 | 3:1 | 180 | 5.3% |
| 10 | 0:2 | 147 | 4.4% |
2:1 in second place (8.7%), ahead of 1:0. 2:2 (5.4%) and 3:1 (5.3%) more frequent than elsewhere. Top 3 = 27.2%.
Goals markets (Over/Under + BTTS)
| Threshold | Frequency |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 59.4% |
| Over 3.5 | 37.8% |
| Over 4.5 | 19.2% |
| Over 5.5 | 9.3% |
BTTS: 58.4% — highest of any top league. Nearly 1 in 5 matches produces 5+ goals.
HT/FT, corners & cards
| HT result | → Home | → Draw | → Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home winning | 78.3% | 15.2% | 6.5% |
| Drawing | 36.0% | 38.3% | 25.7% |
| Away winning | 10.8% | 17.9% | 71.3% |
HT level → home 36.0% vs away 25.7% — 10.3pp gap, widest of any league.
Corners: r = −0.028 (full-match linear). Near zero. Avg 9.6/match. Cards: 3.8 yellows, red in 13.5%.
Can you profit from betting the Bundesliga?
Bet Home
−4.4%
Bet Draw
−0.9%
Bet Away
−9.3%
ROI breakdown by cluster
| Cluster | n | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Fav | 485 | −3.6% | +10.7% | −29.8% |
| Clear Fav | 696 | −4.1% | −1.4% | −11.1% |
| Slight Fav | 749 | −8.4% | +0.1% | −4.1% |
| Even | 536 | −12.5% | −3.1% | +1.6% |
| Underdog | 900 | +3.2% | −6.4% | −7.6% |
Draw in Heavy Fav: +10.7% — most notable in the 5-league dataset. Actual 17.9% vs implied 15.3%. Home as Underdog: +3.2%.
⚠ Retrospective ROI across 11 seasons — not a betting signal. These clusters reflect historical mispricing that the bookmaker margin largely absorbs; the pattern may not persist forward.
Dixon-Coles ρ: why the Bundesliga needs the strongest correction
ρ = −0.096 — strongest of any league (EPL −0.010, La Liga −0.007).
At λ (1.71, 1.36), Poisson underestimates 0:0 and 1:1 by roughly 1pp each. DC closes most of the gap. High λ pushes Poisson 0:0 to ~4.7% — reality is 5.6%. Game-state caution creates goalless draws even when scoring rates are high.
For Bundesliga in the calculator: Adjusted DC, ρ ≈ −0.10. Cross-league comparison →
Data: 3,366 Bundesliga matches, 2015/16–2025/26. Source: football-data.co.uk. Last updated: May 2026.